2016 Jan 26th
Today I heard one of the TV anchors bring up Eric Hoffer’s “True
Believers.” The occasion was Trump’s brag that he could shoot someone and not
lose a vote. She agreed with him, and pointed out that true believers,
according to Hoffer, cling to the bombast and braggadocio that promises them
hope; they are not concerned with specifics. If a 6’3’’ aging billionaire
promises to fix everything if you will only give him a chance why would any
middle and lower income, struggling, poorly educated, middle-aged, angry white
person ask “how?” Keep in mind that Trump’s audiences, by the thousands, are so
disengaged with the real world that they will stand in line for hours and hours
for the chance to see the man who promises to remedy their problems.
I now move from the ultimate fantasy to the ultimate realism: Let’s
look at the betting odds given by a prominent British bookie, Paddy Power. As I
mentioned here before, it is illegal for Americans to bet on our elections so
the betting parlors for our Presidential elections are all offshore, in this
case, in Britain. These odds are offered by people whose only interest is in
making money; there are no ideologues here. The odds given by Paddy Power are
purely in the interest of making money for Paddy Power.
Who is the favorite to win the Republican nomination? It is Donald
Trump at even odds; Rubio is 9 to 4; Cruz is 6 to 1; Bush is 9 to 1. If you bet
on Trump and he wins the nomination you double your money. If you bet on Rubio
to win the nomination and you’re right, a four dollar bet will return nine
dollars (plus your initial bet of course). A one dollar bet on Bush will return
nine dollars if Bush wins.
On the Democratic side the very clear favorite is Hillary
Clinton. If you bet on Clinton to win the nomination you must risk five dollars
to win one additional dollar; Sanders is 7 to 2 and Biden is 16 to 1. The Brits
believe that Secretary Clinton has the nomination well in hand.
Then comes the Big Kahuna, the election itself. The odds of
a Clinton win are 10 to 11, very nearly even; if you bet on her and she wins
you won’t quite double your money. Trump’s odds are 3 to 1; Rubio 6 to 1; Sanders
7 to 1: Cruz 18 to 1; and Bush 20 to 1.
How accurate are these odds? That’s unknown, but these are
professional odds makers and it wouldn’t be smart to bet against them.
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