2016 June 27^th

The Brexit vote continues to reverberate. The website of the politicians who favored the vote to leave has been wiped clean of the lies and misstatements that led many to vote for the Euro exit. The pound continues to fall; the dollar continues to rise. Pound denominated assets are worth less in dollars, a condition delighting Donald Trump who is selling 500 dollar a night Scottish hotel rooms. The strong dollar means that we will sell less abroad because our goods are now more expensive. Does Trump care about that? Paul Manafort, the ethically challenged scumbag who now heads his campaign, reminds us that Trump is a “businessman.” He certainly isn’t a statesman.

(Manafort had connections with the Reagan administration and those helped him with his pitch to Ferdinand Marcos. He was hired by Marcos on nearly million dollars a year contract to keep him in power. He worked for Zaire’s Mobutu Sese Seko to keep him in power; he had also worked for Trump because Trump wanted him to fight the licensing of Indian casinos in Atlantic City, casinos that would compete with Trump’s businesses there. There is more of Manafort’s sordid history online. Just google Paul Manafort if you’re interested.)

What does this Brexit vote really mean? It is an advisory to the British Government and while that is a lot, it does not bind the British Government to withdraw from the EU. Not until the government applies to exit the EU can any action be taken by the EU to either obstruct or expedite their leaving. Most people who understand the complex mechanism of withdrawal from the EU claim it will be two full years from the time Britain applies to leave until they actually leave.

Quite apart from the economic issues, and they are enormous, the Brexit vote could be the end of “Great” Britain. Most immediately, Scotland voted to remain in the EU by about a two to one margin. Now they plan to reconsider their vote to separate themselves from Great Britain. Northern Ireland would also prefer to remain in the EU (56 percent to 44 percent) and will probably join the Republic of Ireland, which is solidly in the EU. The result of all this is a Great Britain consisting of just England and Wales, hardly great any longer.

No one knows how this will finally adjust itself. Given the truly monumental problems, their exit would mean for Great Britain it is hard to imagine a responsible government actually following the Brexit vote if they don’t have to. The government could easily and justifiably claim that Boris Johnson and his Brexit shills lied their way to the Brexit victory and therefore that vote would be nullified.