2016 March 7^th

A few days ago Cal Thomas published a column he titled “Reforming institutions in a ‘dysfunctional city’” by which he meant the Federal Government in Washington; DC equals dysfunctional city, get it? Thomas’ anti-government rant was propelled by his need to work on his income tax. Thomas is fortunate that he needs to work on his income tax because if he were earning the federal minimum wage in this country he would owe no tax at all. Many of those citizens would be happy to change places with him; if they could they would probably not use the occasion to complain about how their tax money was being wasted. He goes on to quote Ronald Reagan who virtually oozed pithy negative comments about our government’s assistance programs for the poor.

The remedy Thomas tells us is to get “beyond the notion of ‘entitlement’ and back to what our ancestors taught about personal responsibility with government as a last resort, not a first resort.” Unfortunately, for many of our citizens, government is the only resort. With a population of 320 million we will obviously have ten percent or 32 million people in the bottom rung of any ability scale. These people will have a very limited capacity to understand directions, particularly written directions, and are employable only in very routine jobs where they can be closely supervised. Then there are people whose employment is limited by physical disability. Thomas quotes Jefferson writing in 1802 warning about government’s pretense of taking care of people. Apparently Thomas believes two and a half centuries have made no difference in the expectations citizens have for their government. He is right of course, and some of them are serving in Congress.

Then Thomas quotes Speaker of the House Paul Ryan: Ryan tells us much to Thomas’ delight that,  “President Obama has signed into law spending increases of nearly 25 percent for domestic government agencies…all of this new government spending was sold as ‘investment.’” Well Mr. Thomas, where did these bills that President Obama signed into law come from? My understanding of the Constitution is that revenue bills must arise in the House of Representatives. If this is true then President Obama has signed into law just those spending bills that the Republican controlled House has sent him to sign. (Perhaps Mr. Thomas would like to comment about this. Just for fun I’ll email this column to him and I’ll let you know if I get a response.)

2016 March 6^th

Semi Super Saturday is over and not a great deal has changed. Cruz won the caucuses in both Kansas and Maine. He also got a lot closer than predicted to Trump in Louisiana. It is clear that the Republican establishment prefers Cruz to Trump because they claim that Cruz is a “real” conservative. Everything depends on Florida and Ohio: if Trump wins them both his nomination is a done deal. He is well ahead in Florida but he was also well ahead in Louisiana until people voted.

Trump has increased the venom the Republicans are throwing at him. This morning on “Meet the Press” Chuck Todd had an interview with Mitt Romney who had unloaded on Trump just a few days before. Todd played a tape of Romney pointing out Trump’s bankruptcies, his inherited wealth, his failed fraud of Trump University and many similar difficulties; then Todd played another tape of Romney receiving Trump’s endorsement four years earlier when Romney had run for President. In that tape Romney had gushed over Trump’s great business sense and how happy he was to get Trump’s endorsement. Then Todd asked Romney what had changed in his evaluation of Donald Trump. Romney kept his composure; his little half-smile never wavered but he had no answer. He could have said that he had been wrong in his earlier assessment of Trump but he simply couldn’t admit that; he is a politician after all.

The attacks on Trump continued during the debate on March 3^rd.  Cruz, Rubio and Kasich showed the audience that they were quite capable of ceaseless attacks on Trump and his policies. Everything from his promise to kill the wives and children of terrorists to his willingness to torture prisoners was used as ammunition. In short, it was clear that all three of them thought that Trump would be an abomination as President and a disaster for the country. Then the moderator asked them if they would support Trump for President if he were to win the nomination. Even though they had all agreed that Trump would be a disaster for the country, every one of these “patriots” said that they would support him for President if he should be nominated. Why? Well, because they had promised to support the nominee. For these men, keeping your personal word trumps what you are sure would be a disaster for your country. These men are the best the Republican Party can offer as Presidential candidates?

The stop Trump theme is also much in evidence from pundits from George Will to Mona Charen. In her column today Charen manages to run through all of Trump’s reprehensible comments. She claims that while Romney may have waited too long to attack Trump, it is not too late to unseat him. “Only fifteen of the Republican primaries or caucuses have been completed,” says Charen. Finally, her limited patience exhausted, she proclaims that Trump is a “degenerate.” She is surely quite safe from a Trump response for I doubt that Donald Trump has ever heard of Mona Charen.

2016 March 5^th

Donald Trump was speaking in Cadillac today, just an hour’s drive away, and I didn’t go to his performance. It was my one chance to see him in person; with any luck I’ll never have another one. Factcheck has an extensive review of Trump’s defense of “Trump University” in this morning’s Record-Eagle. This “University” consisted of a series of lectures on real estate given by lecturers Trump said he had handpicked himself. Either Trump lied or Michael Sexton, past president of Trump University, lied; in a court deposition he said, “None of our instructors in the live events were hand-picked by Donald Trump.”

First, there is not, nor was there ever, a “Trump University.” A university has a reasonably specific definition. From the “Oxford English Dictionary” we have:  "An institution of higher education offering tuition in mainly non-vocational subjects and typically having the power to confer degrees.” Trading real estate is hardly non-vocational and Trump University never had the power to confer a degree to anyone. As usual Trump, in this Factcheck article, tries desperately to salvage something of his shredded credibility. He points out that 95 to 98 percent of Trump University students claim they are satisfied with their courses. Then the reader of this cover-up discovers that these students, who were expecting subsequent internships, had to sign their names to these evaluations. Requiring students to sign their evaluation of any course or instructor is unheard of, but it is clear that Donald Trump doesn’t know that, so he once again blunders while trying to get himself out of a hole.

It would appear that Trump saw the money being coined by other proprietary colleges and decided to get some of the gravy for himself. Corinthian Colleges, a onetime high-flyer in this group is now bankrupt and has sold its assets in an attempt to compensate defrauded students. The Government, which underwrote loans to some of these students, has decided to forgive their indebtedness under some circumstances. Other proprietary schools continue to exist; Phoenix University still advertises widely. Its tuition for online courses is 410 dollars/credit hour, or 1600 dollars for a four credit course. Harvard’s extension program for undergraduate courses is about the same. In fact you can be admitted to Harvard by taking three extension courses and getting no less than “B” in each course. That’s all the entrance exam you need; you’ve demonstrated that you can do the work. So what will it be, Phoenix University or Harvard College? What a tough choice.

2016 March 4^th

I did not see last night’s debate because I knew I would hear about all the high points today. Apparently the only high point came when Kasich pointed out the mess the other children were making in the play room and there seems to be no debate about that. This rivaled the “Animal House” food fight except that they didn’t have any food to throw at each other. Some pundits are asking Romney to consider running again; there is also Jim Webb, Michael Bloomberg, the multi billionaire and Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House. There might be some others slowly emerging from the shadows to save a party sinking irretrievably into the slime. Too late; too late!

Consider that some pundits believe that Senator Rubio could win Florida. This primary awards 99 delegates to the winner and none to the second place finisher. Rubio’s approval rating in Florida is 31 percent; his disapproval rating is 55 percent. He claims that he will not run again for the Senate so he is a lame duck. Florida Governor Rick Scott has not supported him and Donald Trump has a 44 to 28 percent lead in the polls. Then in the debate he called Donald Trump a con man, untrustworthy, uncivil and vulgar.  When Rubio and the rest of these wizards were asked if they would still vote for Donald Trump, they all said sure they would; so much for love of country. Rubio has until March 15^th to turn all this around in Florida; any bets?

On the Democratic side there is no news at all because a considerable degree of civility prevails. The rhetoric is heating up as would be expected, and Sanders isn’t going to leave the race, but Sanders hasn’t been called “Bolshie Bernie” by Clinton as he was a few columns ago by Mona Charen and Clinton hasn’t been called a serial liar by Sanders although she has been called that by every Republican in existence.

At this point in the race let’s look at the odds given by Paddy’s Power, that British betting outfit. Here are the odds for Trump to win the nomination: 2/5, this means that Trump is the odds on favorite to win. If you bet five dollars on him you’ll win just 2 dollars if he wins, Rubio is 5/I, Cruz is 11/2, Clinton on the other hand is 1/16 so it will cost you a 16 dollar bet to win just one dollar if Clinton wins. Paddy is rather sure that Hillary has a lock on the Democratic nomination. For the general election it’s Clinton 1/2, Trump 3/1, Rubio 12/1 and others still less likely. In short, it looks like the folks who have more than just skin in the game are betting on Clinton to win all of the marbles.

2016 March 3^rd

 1:35 PM: Things are moving fast enough so that this entry should be timed as well as dated! Mitt Romney has just spent 20 minutes excoriating Donald Trump, the very same Donald Trump whose business ability he so effusively praised four years ago. Then he wanted Trump’s endorsement for President. Romney has changed his mind now and so has Trump. Trump is on the stump even now excoriating Mitt Romney right back. If it weren’t for the fact that this rhetorical exchange is destructive for the country it would be hilarious!

I’ll have more to say about this later, but for now let’s look at delegates, something that matters. Trump’s hopeful detractors claim that he is not on a path to the nomination because if he continues accumulating delegates at his current pace he will not have the majority needed by convention time. Unfortunately, these folks are not considering that many state primaries coming up are all or none; whoever gets the majority of the votes gets all the delegates. Suppose this rule had been used to assign delegates in the previous state delegate primaries, what would have happened? According to the rules in play now Trump has 319 delegates, Cruz 226 and Rubio 110. Other candidates have dabs and dribbles. If the election had awarded all of the delegates to each state’s winner it would have been Trump 454 delegates, Cruz 256 and Rubio 38. That scenario gives Trump just over 60 percent of the delegates to date instead of less than 50 percent under the rules used to this point. As the all or none contests now come up Trump will increase his delegate percentage if his popularity continues. He might not beat Kasich in Ohio but Rubio’s chances of winning his home state are dim to say the least. Florida is an all or none state with 99 delegates up for grabs and Trump well ahead of Rubio there.

On the Democratic side things are not entirely democratic. The party has about 15 percent of its delegates picked on the basis of their position and allowed to vote for whichever candidate they please. For example all Democratic members of Congress are super delegates, as are various party poohbahs, Democratic state governors, past Presidential candidates and others. These delegates can say that they are pledged to Clinton now, but then in a month or so say “no, now I’m going to vote for Bernie Sanders.”  In general the super delegates vote for the candidate who gets most of the popular vote. In the case of Hubert Humphrey’s nomination, Mr. Humphrey was chosen by the Democratic party elders and had never run in any primary; now that has changed. One of the problems for the super delegate system is that Bernie Sanders’ very significant Colorado victory left him tied with Hillary Clinton in the delegate count because she had most of the super delegates, including Colorado’s governor.  So much for democracy in the Democratic Party.

Of course the super delegates would help reduce the Trump problems for the Republicans. Enough super delegates could block Trump’s path to the nomination and that might be more effective than trying to bring Mitt Romney in from the cold and using him as an attack dog.

2016 March 2^nd

Super Tuesday has passed and Wednesday gives us a clearer vision of what was inevitable even before Tuesday’s votes. The national election in November will be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will lose…unless the Republicans can be more successful at denying voting rights to non-whites. This is view is not mine alone; many, many, well positioned pundits take this position.

This morning Mona Charen, in her column, “GOP race turning into frontal assault vs. Trump,” excoriates the Republican establishment for allowing the rise of Trump. She says, “If ever there were a moment for a Republican establishment—a powerful cabal of donors, office holders and power brokers—to intervene, this would be it. Because if Trump is the nominee it spells the end of the party…” Then she reconsiders later saying that the “Republican establishment is itself mostly a shell and besides money doesn’t buy elections (see Bush, Jeb) and there is no one behind the curtain.” Now that’s a gloomy Republican! But then it will take considerable looking to find a happy column from Mona Charen.

Charen aims most of her never-ending venom at candidates from her own party. Cruz convinced his followers to “destroy the Washington cartel and boy did they ever listen.” So who does she like? Like is too strong, she claims that “Rubio is the most viable non-Trump candidate left.”  I watched Rubio give a performance last night before the Minnesota results showed he had at least won something on Tuesday. He yelled at length about what he would do on his “first day in office.” (The phrase “first day in office” is political speak for “Immediately,” or “very quickly.”) He would cancel all of the President’s executive actions. He would withdraw from the Iran Agreement. He would cancel, revoke, or otherwise eliminate, the Affordable Care Act. These assertions are absurd on their face:  For examples if he opts out of the Iran treaty there are still five other nations, and Iran, involved. Rubio needs to spend more time thinking about how he will manage to get to his first day in office rather than crow in advance about what he will do if he gets there.

Charen then goes on to outline Trump’s many shortcomings, these are shortcomings that she apparently believes haven’t received sufficient emphasis. But you know what these are, there is no point in listing them here, nor was there any point in Mona listing them, except perhaps doing so allowed her to vent and perhaps feel she had accomplished something. It is surprising that Mona Charen cannot recognize that Donald Trump’s very many warts, which she efficiently catalogues in her column, matter not a damn to his supporters.

2016 March 1^st

 “I love the poorly educated,” says Donald Trump, Republican candidate for the Presidency 2016. “We love you right back Mr. Trump,” say the poorly educated in America 2016. 

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George Will has a column in today’s Record-Eagle; in it he presents a way to “Cool down Donald Trump.” Mr. Will is of the opinion that the secret to Donald Trump’s demise lies in his obvious unwillingness to divulge his current and past income tax returns. Will believes that Trump is hiding something. Maybe he is hiding something or maybe he is just unwilling to comply with a government requirement he finds odious. Trump’s conflicts with the IRS will not alienate his followers, if anything that conflict will bind his followers to him all the tighter. “Good old Trump won’t knuckle under to that damned IRS.”

A negative attitude toward taxes is a mainstay of the Republican Party so I am surprised that George Will is not applauding this antic. Conservatives believe that the road to reduced government is to starve the monster into submission. We even have Grover Norquist, an unelected gadfly, insisting that newly elected legislators sign a pledge not to raise taxes. Republican legislators hardly need any urging on that point. Pay as you go is no longer a conservative value when the government can borrow what it needs from China and Japan. These same Tea Party types then moan, oh so loudly, about passing along the resulting massive debt to “future generations.”

The recent David Duke incident when Trump blamed his slow rejection of Duke, the Neo-Nazi on a failure of his earpiece, is now supported by Trump kicking out some African-American students from one of his circuses. When you are very slow to reject a former Ku Klux Klan grand poohbah, and then you start throwing African-American college students out of your rally for the sin of simply standing in the back of the auditorium, you might as well relish your nomination win and forget about winning the general election.

Donald Trump is the Republican Party’s gift to Hillary Clinton that gives and gives and keeps on giving.