2016 May 7^th

A couple of days ago Thomas Sowell, who holds a Ph.D. in economics from the esteemed University of Chicago, published a column titled “Some thoughts on politics, life.” (That’s not a bad title so maybe I’ll use it myself someday.) Dr. Sowell’s initial thought, however, exposed the fact that a doctorate in anything is no guarantee that the holder has an education…training maybe, but that isn’t education. In an early paragraph, Dr. Sowell offers this opinion: “I don’t understand how people who cannot predict the weather five days in advance can predict the climate five decades from now.”

That is simply false to fact; the weather most certainly can be predicted, and with reasonable accuracy, five days in advance. Visit Key West in February and you won’t need a down coat; nor will you pack a bathing suit for a visit to Minneapolis at Christmas time.  Hurricane strikes are routinely predicted helping to save lives and property. We know that in the long run a certain number of people in any age cohort will die but we can’t predict who they will be; that’s how insurance rates are set. A man with a doctorate in economics doesn’t know that?

Of course he knows that but his political blinders force him to make the conservatively correct comments about global warming. As a result he makes a fool of himself.

Sowell continues with his litany of angst. He writes, “Of all the disheartening signs of the utter ignorance of so many college students, nothing so completely disheartened me as seeing on television a black college student who did not know what the Civil War was about.” Why are you surprised Dr. Sowell? The Texas board of education doesn’t know either. They have changed their textbooks so that slavery emerges as a minor cause.

The Texas statement on secession states in straightforward terms that Texas was leaving the union because the Union insisted that they abandon slavery. The Texas board of education couches leaving the Union in states’ rights terms but the “rights” alluded to was the right to have slaves.

When the secessionist states complained that the union was going to deprive the citizens of their property the property they were talking about were African Americans. So it is no surprise that a black college student should be unsure about the cause of the Civil War. Ask your right wing Texas friends why they doctored the state’s textbooks to show slavery was less a negligible factor in the Civil War.

2016 May 6^th

Today we have the interesting juxtaposition of two columnists on the Record-Eagle’s opinion page. At the top there is George Will with a column titled “The Misadventures of Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac.” Below his effort is Eugene Robinson’s “Trump fills a vacuum left by Republican Party.” (Robinson has the advantage of a photograph of Trump flanked by his six-foot tall, blonde, daughter Ivanka; his strikingly attractive Slovakian model wife, Melania, and son Eric’s very attractive, very tall blonde wife, Lara.) This is obviously an unfair contest.

Will describes GSEs of which Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac are his most salient examples. For the uninitiated, GSEs are “government-sponsored enterprises.” These two agencies guarantee 80 percent of American mortgages. According to Mr. Will, these GSE’s should never have existed. Everyone would have been much better off if “market forces” instead of these GSEs had been involved. Then came the housing crash and many wind-fall financial opportunities erupted, all the result of government over reach. (In spite diligent searching I can find the term “government under reach” nowhere in any right wing lexicon.) Had enough? I certainly have.

Of all the interesting political things to write about, from Paul Ryan’s current reluctance to endorse Trump and Trump’s current reluctance to endorse Ryan’s “agenda” in their grade school tit for tat, carefully orchestrated game, why would George Will think anyone would be interested in an extended disquisition on GSEs? Of course it doesn’t matter to Mr. Will, if he can take some abstract, impenetrable, utterly boring topic, and illustrate his grasp of the issues, and by doing so illustrate his intellectual brilliance he really doesn’t care whether or not you are interested.

Eugene Robinson, on the other hand, has chosen to comment on the Republican Party in these days of its near terminal angst. His thesis is that the Republicans captured the Reagan Democrats and the let them hang out to dry and left them there for years, ignoring their economic concerns. “Trump is filling a vacuum left by years of inattention to voters who have been patronized and taken for granted. The fissures he exposed in the GOP will not go away.”  Robinson claims that the party has nominated a candidate who does not subscribe to many of the party’s core beliefs. “Post Trump, Republicans will have a choice: They can develop new policies or they can look for new voters.”

That’s quite straightforward, easy to understand and hardly debatable. The far right of the Republican Party has effectively stalled the government.  By crippling the legislative branch they have made sure that Congress has the lowest approval rating in its history and provided all the ammunition Donald Trump could possibly want. The leader of the Tea Party’s attempts to throttle the government is none other than Speaker Paul Ryan.

2016 May 5^th

Here we are on day one of Donald Trump’s “victory dance.” You might have supposed that Trump would have shown a little modesty as he basked in his triumph, but then, on second thought, you would suppose no such thing…and you would be right. It seems that Trump is Trump; he is not playing a part (or if he is he might not be able to remove the mask for one character to put on the mask of another).

The question for Trump now is how will he manage to turn from irritating every minority in the country, and some not in the minority, I think specifically of women, to positions which will let him win the general election? His earlier comments about Latino rapists and drug dealers are now being played to motivate Latin American soccer teams to play their best against the Americans. The Clinton campaign has put together a series of Trump’s Republican competitors commenting on Trump. They are uniformly very negative about their new party leader.

Trump’s nastiness toward nearly every minority is out there for the Clinton campaign to use as they like…and they surely like. These comments are also a problem for Donald in the general election. If he tries to soften any of the stands that have made him so attractive to his many followers; building the wall, excluding Moslems, etc., in order  to appeal to a broader electorate, will he start to lose the fans who have brought him to his present peak? These fans were mightily attracted to the positions Trump has taken, positions that has alienated him from most Republicans. It is worth noting that of the over 25 million votes cast in the Republican primaries, Trump got just about 10.5 million and the other 15 million votes went to somebody else. Trump is simply not the first choice of most Republicans who voted…and remember that a minority of registered Republicans bothered to vote.

What of the party leaders, how are they breaking on the Trump issue? Mitt Romney and the two former Bush Presidents will not be attending the convention nor will they be endorsing Donald Trump. That information plays right into Trump’s claim to be hated by the Republican establishment; you can’t get any more establishment than the immediate past party standard bearer and the two previous Republican Presidents. Trump might not care, nor will his fans, but what about broadening his appeal to others in the party? Trump might not care but Hillary Clinton is a happy camper. At a considerably lower level, among those officials still active in the party we have that party stalwart and former party standard-bearer Senator John McCain. The Senator is endorsing the party’s nominee because, after all, the Senator is a good Republican. It does seem that McCain’s loyalty to the Republican Party is more important to him than concern for his country. No one who would choose Sarah Palin to be his Vice Presidential nominee can have much interest in the welfare of his country. McCain’s support of Trump simply continues that tradition. This is in spite of McCain’s recognition that Trump at the head of the ticket makes McCain’s re-election in heavily Latino Arizona very difficult.

That’s not all, even Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, joins the Bushes and claims he isn’t ready yet to endorse his party’s standard bearer either; poor Donald.

2016 May 4^th

There is no end of news today, but none of it is surprising. Donald Trump’s “Victory Speech” after winning Indiana suggested that he wanted to bring the party together while at the same time he accused Cruz’ father of some complicity in the Kennedy assassination. That’s not a good start but Trump doesn’t care.

 Cruz, finally seeing the inevitable, has “suspended his campaign” which is political talk for “I’m outta here, although contributions are still welcome.” Trump commended Cruz as a great fighter. That probably isn’t enough to make Cruz decide to support Trump. Indeed, in his suspension speech Cruz called Trump a pathological liar, a serial philanderer and some other equally unpleasant names. Trump has not decided to reject any of the Cruz’ accusations. Do you suppose that Cruz’ answer to Chuck Todd’s “Meet the Press” Sunday question about voting for Donald Trump has changed? For Cruz I guess a serial philanderer and a pathological liar as a President is probably better than a Democrat. Even so, I’ll bet Cruz and friends will not be out trying to get votes for the Donald.

Now Kasich has dropped out as well, leaving the Donald all alone with no one to challenge him. Kasich never got any traction in this endeavor; maybe because he was seen as part of the establishment, which he was, and maybe because he came across as a colorless technocrat, very efficient but not very likeable. Whatever his problems were, it’s back to dealing with Ohio’s difficulties for him.

I wonder what Trump will do for publicity and airtime now that he has wrapped up his party’s nomination. I would bet that he will make absurd statements about Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Chelsea Clinton and Hillary’s granddaughter just to get noticed. Public notice for Trump is worth whatever he has to do to get it and there is no limit to what he will do to get it. He has proven that.

Hillary Clinton sat for an extended interview by Anderson Cooper. She claimed that she couldn’t wait to ask Trump about some of his policies, from demonizing Muslims to his comments about women. It was obvious that Secretary Clinton was not at all intimidated by the prospect of confronting Donald Trump with some of the things he has said, things that are on the record. She was quite specific that the media, when interviewing Trump,  had not really asked him to explain how he would carry out his plans. For example how would he round up the 11 million people he plans to deport… and how would he deal with the constitutional issues of deporting children many of whom are American citizens.

Later when various members of the commentariate had the opportunity to comment on the interview, Dana Bash jumped right in saying that she was very upset with Clinton’s claim that the press had been too easy on Trump because Bash claimed that she had indeed asked him over an over about his plans. She is right; the interviewers have asked Trump to explain himself but Trump doesn’t answer the interviewer’s questions and makes it quite clear that he wants to hear no more on that topic, so the questioner meekly moves on. Cruz tried that same evasive tactic with Chuck Todd on Meet the Press about whether or not he would vote for Trump in the general election and Todd made Cruz’ seven evasive answers quite clear to his audience.

While Trump can blow off the likes of Bash and others who must be careful not to irritate The Donald, lest he refuse to give them future interviews, Hillary Clinton will be a whole other matter. 

2016 May 3^rd

And now we wait to see just how badly Senator Cruz’ efforts to win Indiana have failed. It certainly hasn’t been for want of trying. At a recent rally the Senator was so focused on what he was saying that he did not notice his running mate, Carly Fiorina, falling off the stage. Then, energized by a group of protesters who waved banners telling him to get out of the race, he decided to “reason with them.” That didn’t work even though he kept his efforts going for some time. The protesters were not converted; indeed, they never paused in their calls for him to get out of the race.

The Senator’s appeal seems to slide to a halt once his audience no longer consists of fervent evangelicals. There are just not enough of those folks in Indiana to support a fervent Bible salesman, let alone a politician who at his most charming isn’t very charming at all. He is also plagued with a speaking style filled with pauses following nearly every phrase that is not at all pleasant to hear. As a final problem, as if he needed more, his antagonist, Donald Trump, has pulled in sports figures from Notre Dame’s legendary football coach, Lou Holtz, to Indiana’s legendary basketball coach, Bobby Knight. Once you make it to “legendary” status, some might wonder about your judgment when recommending Presidential candidates. (I’m not being ageist here because I’m more than a decade older than either of these guys…but then I’m not legendary…except of course to my wife.)

Why is no one paying any attention to Governor Kasich? In all of the polls Kasich is the only Republican candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton.so why is he ignored? OK, so he’s seen as part of the “establishment” so what? Are these Republicans so eager to avoid an insider that they will cheerfully nominate a sure loser? Part of Kasich’s problem may be that he just isn’t seen as likeable. He is certainly competent; he balances budgets, but beyond that what is his claim to fame? There doesn’t seem to be any levity at all in the man. That lack can be a killer. Kasich seems to be all policy all the time.

The Indiana primary results are now in enough to declare Trump the clear winner, Cruz a very bad second and Kasich should have stayed home! Trump and Cruz are about to speak as I write this. Trump will surely crow and Cruz might withdraw.

On the Democratic side, the race is too close to call. Sanders is ahead but not by nearly enough to give him the win.

2016 May 2^nd

It really is all over but the shouting and there continues to be plenty of that. Cruz is baiting Trump supporters is Indiana, a move that will get him no additional votes. Cruz’ absolute refusal to say he would vote against the man he claimed would be a disaster for the country if elected to the Presidency is playing everywhere. If there is another edition of “Profiles in Courage” Cruz will not make the cut. If anything, Cruz’ antics this past week have cost him votes and delighted Trump who now is unstoppable. Republicans are climbing aboard and trying to convince themselves that Trump can win the general election. This is because Trump’s followers have remained glued to his side no matter what he says. As a result, Republican poohbahs believe he can pull the general out of the hat too. Of course he has to do more than keep what following he has to win the general election; he has to add to his following and good luck convincing Latinos, African-Americans, Asian-Americans and women that he is just the guy for them.

Even his recent foreign policy speech was a disaster. It was just dandy for those Republicans who see the future and want to come aboard now. Of course when you say you’ll stand by our allies…but they must now pay their own way, or when you say you won’t take nuclear weapons off the table…and that you want to be unpredictable, you make both your friends and your enemies very nervous, and incline them to be unpredictable as well.

If Trump is confounding the Republicans, Senator Sanders is providing the same favor for Democrats. Sanders has little if any chance to be the Democratic nominee and sees no reason to drop out of the race even if he can’t win it. The problem is that now Sanders has become willing to diminish Clinton’s chances to win the general election in order to enhance, if ever so slightly, his own chances to get the nomination. He has stated that Clinton is “unqualified” to be President because of certain votes she has taken. This supposed “lack of qualification” is entirely in Sander’s mind, but now Trump has picked up that characterization and begun to use it against Clinton. Who is surprised by Trump’s ploy? Thanks Senator!

Sanders agrees that Clinton is a far better choice than Trump. Sanders slamming Clinton is done from desperation and gets Sanders nowhere; short of a physical infirmity, Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. Sander’s has had a remarkable run (which he emphasizes at every opportunity) and now, having moved Clinton to the left, Sanders should stop being a potential wrecking ball for the Democrats.

I voted for Sanders in the Michigan primary, I hope he won’t make me sorry.

2016 May 1^st

Today we look at Senator Ted Cruz’ performance on Chuck Todd’s “Meet the Press” program. Any time you give a politician free airtime you can be sure you’ll get multiple variations of his stump speech, and that’s just what Chuck Todd got from Ted Cruz. Late night comics have mocked Cruz’ halting delivery; he pauses, sometimes after every phrase, looking left or right before continuing, apparently believing this to be a successful rhetorical style. It isn’t, but it’s wonderful ammunition for late night comics. He didn’t stoop to that shtick on “Meet the Press” because it would have allowed Todd to slip in a question and Cruz wanted no interruptions to his non-stop talking points.

Much of Cruz harangue was aimed at the disaster Donald Trump’s election would be for the country. This theme was reiterated over and over again. Todd was obviously trying to break into Cruz’ monologue to ask a question and finally he was successful, “Senator Cruz, will you vote for Donald Trump if he is the nominee of your party?” Cruz answered that Trump would not be the party’s nominee. Todd persisted, reminding Cruz that he had said what a disaster Trump would be for the country and asking again if Cruz would vote for him. Cruz dodged the question again. Todd asked the question, altogether, seven times and each time he got evasive answers until, finally, he gave up. Then Cruz said, “You’re just trying to get me to say I support Donald Trump.” In what alternate universe does Senator Cruz live?

Maybe it’s time to look again at this wonderful Trump success in the Pennsylvania primary. Donald Trump won that primary with about 57 percent of the Republican vote. To be specific Trump got 893,716 votes. Trump’s opponents got 666,349 votes. His two principle opponents Ted Cruz and John Kasich got the great bulk of those non-Trump votes. It happens that there are about 3 million registered Republicans in Pennsylvania. If we total all of the primary votes we get about 1.5 million Republican primary votes. This means that about half of the registered Republicans just stayed home and weren’t interested in voting for any of the above.

On the Democratic side things are not all that different. Pennsylvania has about 4 million registered Democrats. Clinton got 918,689 votes and Sanders 710,955 so Clinton clearly beat Sanders. With 4 million registered Democrats in Pennsylvania and only 163,864 of them turning out to vote, that’s about 41 percent; so nearly 60 percent of registered Democrats didn’t care enough about the outcome to bother voting.

Neither Republicans nor Democrats are very excited about their potential candidates and after watching the President hosting the Correspondent’s Dinner I can see why.