2016 Feb 2^nd

This is an important day…and not just because we have the results of the Iowa caucuses. This is the day that Punxutawney Phil has emerged and might see his shadow. Predictions about the continuance of winter weather are just as fraught as predictions about politics, or about the stock market. Either Yogi Berra or Hans Bohr, take your pick, said that prediction is tough, especially about the future.

There were some notable moments last night: Donald trump’s congratulatory speech confirming the Cruz victory showed a different and unexpectedly civil side of Donald Trump. Ted Cruz noting that his Iowa victory was a “signal to the whole country” was a forty-nine state exaggeration…at least the Republican establishment hopes it was. Senator Graham was asked what he thought of Cruz’ chance of winning the general election if he got the Republican nomination; he said he thought it was about one chance in ten. Cruz’ win was a step on the toe of Governor Branstad who warned Iowans not to vote for him because of his hostility toward ethanol subsidies. A gallon of ethanol in Dec. 2014 was 2.40; in Dec 2015 it was 1.52 and it will continue to drop as gasoline prices drop. …One bit of nastiness that helped Cruz, Representative Steve King, a fervent Cruz supporter, put out entirely false information that Dr. Ben Carson had withdrawn from the race. Both Cruz and Carson were after the same set of evangelical voters. Guess who won them after Steve King’s message got out.

Hillary Clinton committed a boo-boo: She claimed, well in advance of the final count, that she had won the Iowa caucus. At that point she certainly hadn’t won it and she finally won it by the smallest fraction of one percent, an unpersuasive victory. Clinton has had to deal, or avoid dealing with, a reputation for deception. Claiming a win, or even appearing to claim a win, adds to that image.  Kathleen Parker, a columnist who is usually just moderately on the right side of sensible, has a column today in which she hammers Hillary Clinton on her “truthiness.” She even goes back to 1996, 20 years ago, to William Saffire who accused the Secretary of being “a congenital liar.” Mr. Safire is also noteworthy for claiming the Iraq war was imperative because Iraq absolutely had cached weapons of mass destruction. Parker also cites “Any number of fabricated—or at least exaggerated—stories” by Mrs. Clinton but gives no examples. Benghazi is mentioned by Parker, yet again, with emphasis on Clinton’s initial claim that the facility was not attacked by terrorists. Exactly why the allegiance of the attackers is important is unclear…as is the retroactive classification of the Secretary’s emails as top secret. Of course she shouldn’t have had a private server and she has apologized for that but this retroactive email classification will continue.

Another question raised by the Iowa caucuses is the fate of the single digiters: Bush, Fiorina, Kasich, Christie and Santorum. When will they be seized by an accurate perception of reality and wake from their dream? Huckabee has already dropped out. Who will commit to writing a check to Carly Fiorina after she pulls a 1.9 percent in Iowa? She stiffed the people who worked for her in her bid for the Senate against Barbara Boxer. I’ll bet there are some very nervous supporters in her current campaign.