2016 March 20^th

Tomorrow some candidates for the Presidency will give speeches to the American Israeli Public Affairs Council (AIPAC). This group is waiting to hear what Donald Trump has to say although it is a foregone conclusion that Trump will come across as the very best friend the State of Israel has ever had, or ever will have. Trump is not about to say anything that might upset these folks. On the other hand this is not an audience of nincompoops; there will be questions and Donald is not used to being questioned by anyone willing to insist on reasonable answers. Then there is some dissension in the AIPAC ranks; forty Rabbis have said that they will not attend any Trump presentation. They have already heard quite enough of what Trump has to say; they don’t need to hear anymore. It should be an interesting speech.

The next votes on the Republican side are on Tuesday 22^nd March when Arizona votes and Utah caucuses. Everyone will be watching but nothing will change.

Sometimes it is instructive to look at the odds makers whose livelihood depends on getting it right. These are not the usual columnists whose income depends on simply hewing the party line. Here are the odds provided by Paddy Power, a British firm allowing bets on just about everything. First we’ll look at the Republican nomination:

For Trump it’s 2/7 (This means that a 7 dollar bet is required to get a 2 dollar profit. In short, Trump is very highly favored by these odds makers to take the nomination.)

Cruz is 6/1, a long shot; Kasich is the same 6/1, Romney and Ryan are even longer shots at 40/1.

On the other side in the primary Clinton is a 1/20 favorite while Sanders is a 10/1 long shot.

For the General election we have Clinton at 4/9, a more than a two to one favorite; while Trump is 5/2, about the same odds but in the other direction. Kasich and Cruz are in the 20 to 1 long shot category.

These odds haven’t changed very much over the last couple of months but they are subject to change without notice.