2016 May 25^th

Mona Charen suggests that a Donald Trump Presidency would be a greater disaster than a Hillary Clinton Presidency. She bases this belief on the idea that the Republican obstructionism, currently practiced by the Congress, would continue under a Clinton Presidency, forcing her to rely on executive orders, which Charen assures us, would be declared unconstitutional by right wing judges.

Trump, on the other hand, if elected, will have no Republican opposition. Charen claims that, “Republicans will actively assist President Trump in undermining conservatism. From entitlements to trade to NATO to nuclear proliferation to universal healthcare to abortion, President Trump will get a free hand. He thus has it within his power to sabotage the whole conservative movement.” WOW! If I thought Charen was right I might vote for Trump. She isn’t right and I won’t vote for him.

If Trump is elected it is very likely that these “sabotage(s) of the whole conservative movement” that Charen so fears (and in which many others would delight) will prove as ephemeral as many of Trump’s other “positions.” While many conservative stalwarts have bent the knee to “the Donald,” others certainly have not. If Trump wins the Presidency and tries to push through a conservatively controlled House of Representatives legislation unacceptable to the Speaker of the House, there will be resistance and Trump will lose. Can you imagine Trump forced to push his programs into being by use of executive orders? What a hoot!

There are two different considerations here: First, Republican honchos want Trump to win the Presidency because they desperately want to control SCOTUS which can happen only if Trump wins. Second, there is no guarantee that the policies Trump advances this morning are the same ones he will push this afternoon. His political positions may be more agreeable to people like Charen once he is elected, and if they are not agreeable then a Republican Congress can certainly block them.

But here’s the rub. Charen’s benign view of a Clinton Presidency for conservatives hinges on failure of the Democrats to take back the Senate. That is certainly not a given: There are 34 Senate seats at risk. OK, perhaps that’s an exaggeration. I should have said up for election; few of them are really at risk. There are 24 seats now held by Republicans; some of these were won in the last election when Democrats lost many congressional seats. Some of those seats will be recovered and it will only take five of them for Democrats to regain the Senate and the treasured appointments to SCOTUS.