Aug 12^th

And now we have Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire 44 to 37. Donald Trump is still leading all other Republican candidates. Is it possible that this portends a Presidential contest between a multi-billionaire and a quasi-socialist? I know the odds are against it but wise-acres like me can hope it happens. A person close by asked me how old Bernie was and I told her that he was now 73 and that he was rather old to become the President, She said that she didn’t think 73 was old at all. That she will be 71 in September may bias her view a bit. I didn’t argue with her.

Bernie Sanders has been drawing unprecedented crowds to his appearances; Portland, Oregon, and Los Angeles, California, each drew between 25 and 30 thousand people. His positions certainly appeal to young people and to their parents as well. Free college tuition is a winner with both groups, particularly if it’s paid for by raising taxes on the “rich.” The professional pundits, even professors of political science, all conclude that Bernie has no chance to get the nomination because he has no billionaire backers and the people turning out to hear his views will never vote for him. They might be right…but how many of these prognosticators would have predicted fifteen years ago that a black man would soon be elected to two terms as President of the United States?  Casey Stengel said, “Never make predictions, especially about the future.”

Donald Trump now tops the polls in Iowa and in New Hampshire. Poor Jeb is fading fast and Dr. Ben Carson has moved into second. Carson did not distinguish himself at the Fox debate. Given his second question, he querulously said that he thought, with the delay, that the moderators would not get around to him again. With his interesting scientific views, or rather his lack of scientific views, on the age of the earth and similar scientific questions where a Biblical literalist will inevitably stub his toe. Carson is proof positive that brain surgery requires a very skilled technician but not necessarily a scientist.

Carly Fiorina has moved up as well. She has made her chops by relentlessly attacking Hillary Clinton, a very easy target because Hillary doesn’t strike back at Carly; she is much too busy going after Jeb Bush. That will probably change now that Jeb is receding in the polls. So far no one has mentioned Carly Fiorina’s stiffing of some of her staff after her 2010 election loss to Barbara Boxer. That continues to hang over Carly to be used when needed. You may remember the “Hillary likeability” factor from the 2008 debate. It was an issue then and it’s still an issue. Still, I’ll bet she beats Donald Trump on that variable!

Trump is secure for the moment. When he focuses on the splendid things he’ll do and doesn’t talk about how he’ll do them he avoids any criticism of his methods. Eventually the curtain will part and the Wizard won’t be able to hide. Until then nobody cares.