The odds, Sept 10^th

It is illegal to bet on the outcomes of elections in this country but you can bet on them in Britain. The result is that in Britain there are bookmakers who will take your money if you wish to bet on your favorite candidate; they will also determine the odds of your candidate winning.

For example, in spite of the undeniable fact that Donald Trump is leading all other candidates in the polls for the Republican nomination, William Hill, a premier British odds maker, has Trump an 8 to 1 underdog to win the nomination. If you believe that those are laughably low odds then you can bet 100 dollars that Trump wins the nomination and if he does you will collect 800 dollars from Mr. Hill. Of course Mr. Hill makes his living offering odds and his evaluation of Trump’s chances must be respected regardless of Trump's sturdy poll numbers.

Sometimes it is instructive to look at the odds Hill provides for various outcomes: Who is the favorite to win the Republican nomination? It isn’t Donald Trump; it is Jeb Bush who lags Trump substantially in the current popularity contest. Hill’s odds for Jeb to win the nomination are 11 to 8. That means that if you want to bet on Jeb, an 8 dollar bet will win 11 dollars for you if Jeb wins. Among all of the Republican hopefuls those are the most favorable odds for any candidate. Rubio and Walker are each 7 to 2. From there the odds of winning the Republican nomination fall off very fast; Ben Carson is a 20 to 1 shot; Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum are each 50 to 1 shots.

Of course Hill will also give odds on the Democrats; he sees Hilary Clinton as the most likely Democratic nominee, In spite of her recent and continuing pounding from conservatives about her server, Hill has her as 1 to 6 favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Bernie Sanders is listed as 8 to 1, exactly the same odds Hill gives Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination. How about the general election; what are Hill’s odds on the ultimate winner in 2016? At this admittedly early point the odds for the Democrats are 8 to 11 and for the Republicans 11 to 10. So the odds right now favor the Democrats…at least according to a well-connected British bookie.

On another note, albeit somewhat discordant, but since it’s about Donald Trump who should be surprised. Mr. Trump, for no particular reason, attacked the appearance of Carly Fiorina. He said that “her face makes her unelectable.” He launched attacks against her for other reasons as well; he dwelt on her controversial tenure as CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Given that she is not much above water in the polls one wonders why Trump bothers, perhaps for Trump to be nasty is to be happy or maybe it’s vice-versa.