2016 July 14^th

The question of the week is whom will Donald Trump pick to be his running mate. Let’s review the bidding, or in any case the most popular bids. The leading candidate is the Governor of Indiana Mike Pence. Mike has had a lot of recent face time with Trump because, it is said, Trump’s plane was grounded overnight in Indiana. Whether this increased familiarity actually helped Pence no one will know. Pence brings some baggage with him, baggage that might be to Trump’s advantage with the evangelicals. Pence was responsible for the notorious “religious freedom” act. This act allowed any merchant who had an attack of conscious when considering a service to any same sex couple to refuse to provide the service. This meant a baker could refuse to provide a wedding cake for a gay couple’s wedding. Could this allow an innkeeper to refuse a room to a mixed race couple? Who knows, but that is certainly a possibility Here is a comment: Gov. Pence signed the measure during a private ceremony just before 10 a.m. Thursday morning. Members of the media were not allowed to even be in the waiting area of the governor’s office, the Indianapolis Star reported. I guess Pence was not very proud of his accomplishment.

Moving along we come to Speaker Newt Gingrich. The Speaker was officially reprimanded by the House Ethics Committee for using a tax-exempt organization for political purposes and for lying to the committee. Given Trump’s ethical problems (Think Trump “University,” his personal fleecing machine) Gingrich’s ethical challenges are small potatoes indeed. Still, there are his three marriages, his notifying wife number one of his terms for a divorce while she was in a hospital recovering from cancer surgery, his admission that he cheated on wife #2 with Calista, wife #3, and his recent negative comments about Trump himself. His background as a sexual adventurer should give him the possibility of matching Donald Trump’s stories. Trump claims his many bouts of venereal disease were equivalent to service in Viet Nam.

Chris Christie is also under consideration for the honor of joining the Trump ticket. Governor Christie also has several tons of baggage. To begin he is not a popular governor. Many citizens of New Jersey are backing him for Vice President just to get him out of the state and to get someone else in as governor. His approval rating hovers around 25 percent. Being a Governor of a state does require no little work but Christies has been spending a lot of his time making nice to Donald Trump. There is another problem for Governor Christie: Ivanka Trump’s spouse, Jared Kushner, who plays a prominent role as an advisor to Trump, might have a problem with Christie. When Christie was a prosecutor, before he was governor, he prosecuted Kushner’s father for some naughtiness and sent his daddy to the slammer. Could that bias Jared Kushner against Christie?

At times like this we look to unbiased predictions, namely our friends at Paddy Power, the Brit’s betting outfit that will let you wager on US election outcomes. Paddy is no longer taking bets but when they last did a few hours ago, Mike Pence was the favorite at 1/3, meaning wager three dollars and if you’re right, you win a dollar. The next in line is Gingrich at 5/2, meaning a two-dollar bet will win you five dollars if you’re right. Betting obviously favors Mike Pence, who, if he wants it, will go down in flames with the Donald.