2016 July 2^nd

Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Hillary Clinton will “raise your taxes 45 to 50 percent, count on it.” Why does he say that? He says it for the same reason he says anything, not because it is true, although he may believe it is, but because it wrings more applause from his adoring crowds. Donald Trump is mightily addicted to the cheers and applause of his fans; it will probably be his undoing.

What about Trump’s own tax plan? The Tax Policy Center provides an answer. (The Tax Policy Center is a non-political group started by advisers to Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. They take it upon themselves to analyze tax policy advocated by various politicians and give us the results.)

First, to Trump’s claim about Clinton’s plan to raise taxes: There is no evidence for it at all, and no one is at all surprised by that fact.

Trump himself has a splendid tax plan. Everybody will pay lower taxes; of course the benefits of his tax plan are not scattered evenhandedly among the public. Some will profit from the Trump plan far more than will others. (One of the principle beneficiaries is Donald J. Trump himself.) The first thing of note is that the Trump plan eliminates the estate tax, the so-called “death tax.” This will save Donald Trump who claims he is worth billions of dollars, billions of dollars. Family fortunes have escaped this tax many times. If the wealthy family gets a shrewd lawyer and plans ahead they have nothing to worry about. Trump would likely have managed that but if the estate tax is abolished, he won’t have to worry about it.

Trump’s plan also modifies the income tax brackets. The top bracket, now 39.6 percent, will drop to a much more manageable 25 percent. Trump’s income is estimated to be about 500 million a year. This means that about 400 million a year of his income will be taxed at the highest bracket. The result of Trump’s plan is that Trump will save about 60 million dollars a year in income taxes.

The Tax Policy Center has determined that Trump’s plan will result in a 17.5 percent reduction in the income taxes of the top 1 percent of taxpayers; for those in the bottom bracket the reduction would amount to just 1 percent.

Lowering taxes will increase the national debt unless expenditures are cut as well. As it stands Trumps generous tax cut plan will add about 11 trillion dollars to our national debt by 2026. But then Trump has said that the debt is “negotiable” so why worry about it?