2016 July 29^th

Both conventions are over and we are reminded of “Macbeth” and the lines ending, “…It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing,” but what if it isn’t? Now that the odds makers have had time to make their adjustments, how have the election odds changed as a result of the conventions? The Brits, who can bet on American elections, have no political interest in the outcome, but they do have a monetary interest in getting the odds right. Paddy Power is one such outfit with a large online presence. The odds they give on the election have not changed noticeably because of the conventions. Hillary Clinton is still the odds on favorite to win. A two-dollar bet on her to win will earn you just one dollar if you’re right. (An odds on bet is one in which you can win less than you risk.) For Donald Trump the odds are 13/8 meaning that you can bet eight dollars and if you are right you’ll win 13 dollars. In sum, Paddy Power is still reasonably sure that Clinton will win.

Peggy Noonan, the very long time columnist for “The Wall Street Journal” tells us that Trump’s acceptance speech “was neither eloquent nor lofty, but it was powerful.” Then she goes on to say “Trump’s speech was important. He is a vivid figure and for year has elicited strong reactions. By now he’s exhausting. We have Trump fatigue.” So what was so powerful about Trump’s speech? Perhaps that will take another column.

She writes, “Does he want a ban on Muslims? No. ‘We must immediately suspend immigration from any nation that has been compromised by terrorism…’” Compromised by terrorism? Who decides? Do we ban immigration from France where there have been many terrorist attacks? Noonan does not mention this change from Trump’s initial ban, “…until we can find out what the hell is going on.” Does Trump believe that we now know “what the hell is going on” and so he changes his immigration criteria? Will he jump back to his first ban tomorrow, or maybe next week?

A high point of the convention was a talk by Khizr Khan, a Muslim whose son was killed while serving in Iraq. He pointed out that Trump’s ban on Muslim immigrants would have kept his family from coming to America. He said that Trump needed to read the Constitution, particularly the sections on liberty and freedom. He pointed out that Trump had risked nothing and lost nothing for his country.

Sam Clovis the co-chair of the Trump campaign was quick to deny that Trump had banned Muslims from the country. Clovis, a retired Air Force bird colonel, claimed that Trump had just wanted a pause on the immigration of Muslims. So Colonel Clovis, how long must a pause be before it becomes a ban? It seems obvious to most of us who speak English that this “pause” is a ban as long as it is used to stop Muslims from entering the country.

Of course Trump is not yet President and if Paddy Power’s odds are right, his presidency isn’t all that likely.