2016 August 31th

I have, from time to time, referenced the British betting house Paddy Power, which provides politically neutral odds on our elections. Sadly, over the last ten days the odds on Clinton winning the election have slipped a bit, not a lot mind you, but slipped never the less.

On 8/21 if you were to have bet two dollars against Hillary Clinton winning the Presidency and you were subsequently right you would collect winnings of nine dollars. Today that win has dropped to seven dollars. The odds makers believe she is slightly less certain to win. They also believe she is less certain to be her party’s nominee at election time.  Ten days ago a one dollar bet against her would have paid 33 dollars if you won and she was not the party’s nominee at election time; now the same bet will only pay 25 dollars.

Who cares what the Brits think? It is our election not theirs. That’s the point, they aren’t concerned with Trump’s buffoonery or Clinton’s emails, except as these influence their analysis of the election odds. (Keep in mind they were dead wrong about the Brexit vote.)

Lots of activity today on the Trump front: He has accepted an invitation from the president of Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto, to come to Mexico City for a chat. This President has compared Trump to Hitler and has said that Mexico would never pay for Trump’s (expletive deleted) wall. Trump first comment about Mexican’s coming into this country began with a lie. His first three words were, “Mexico is sending…” Mexico obviously was “sending” no one, but that didn’t bother Trump who believes everything he says because he has said it. For Trump there is no other criterion for truth.

Why would Mexico’s President invite Trump to Mexico City for a conference?  President Pena Nieto’s approval rating among Mexicans is lower than Donald Trump’s rating among Americans. On the other hand what do Trump’s handlers believe Trump has to gain by spending hours on this round trip just before he gives  a major talk on immigration at nine o’clock tonight in Arizona. Maybe he will claim that the President of Mexico has promised him that he will absolutely stop the flow of immigrants to the US and will pay for the wall after all. Trump has no problem with telling lies, and then if Mexico’s President denies he said any such thing Trump will call him a liar. (Keep in mind that the flow of Mexicans into the US is about equal to the flow of Mexican nationals back into Mexico, a fact you won’t hear from Trump.) There is another possibility: Mexico’s President Pena Nieto could place Trump under arrest and throw him in the slammer for slandering his country. Yeah, I know that won’t happen, but just thinking about it is very satisfying.