2016 Dec 14^th

This morning’s paper carries a very rarely seen columnist’s advice to the Democratic Party. The columnist is Michael Barone who writes for the “Washington Examiner,” a low circulation (40,000) weekly Washington D.C. paper devoting itself to pushing a conservative agenda. Barone is also a resident fellow at “The American Enterprise Institute.” These credentials give you some idea of what to expect. However, look at the title: It is “Democratic Party,” not the usual snide right wing “Democrat Party,” so be encouraged!

He quickly returns to snide by telling his readers that, “The first thing the Democrats must do is to end the alibi game.” The Republicans were quick to analyze the reasons for their defeat in 2012; so was that just an “alibi game” or a legitimate analysis of reasons?  What’s the difference? It seems if you aren’t sympathetic to the loser these are alibis; if you are sympathetic, they are reasons.

Barone says, “Don’t blame “fake news” when your candidate had lots to spend delivering her message.” What nonsense! What did it cost Trump for the air time on most networks to cover his lengthy speeches from beginning to end nearly every night. Trump was getting freebies from the very media he so delighted in condemning. Fake news can’t be combatted by simple denial. What good did it do Obama to deny that he was born in Kenya; Trump had insisted for years, on no evidence at all, that President Obama was not born in this country and therefore his presidency was illegitimate.  About two thirds of Trump supporters still believe that and about an equal number believe he is Muslim. Does Barone really believe that enough campaign money can change those opinions?

Barone says, “Don’t blame the FBI director when your candidate violated criminal laws and the Attorney General had to disqualify herself after a secret meeting with the candidate’s husband.” More baloney: The FBI head said that there was not enough evidence of criminality to prosecute Mrs. Clinton, and as to this secret meeting…It was indiscreet but surely no secret that the two of them were chatting and walking up the steps of the Attorney General’s plane. The film of this were played in and endless loop. Perhaps Barone didn’t see that…some secret meeting!

And now for Barone’s most laughable comments, “Exit polls show that Trump …ran slightly better among non-whites than Romney did in 2012, This apparent regression to the mean, to voting more like the national average, undercuts the theory that…non-whites will remain overwhelmingly Democratic forever.” Ah, how wonderful is the power of distortable statistics.

Trump did get 33 percent more of the African American vote than Romney got. Of course Romney was running against an African American and  Trump was running against a Caucasian woman. That should make a difference, but 33 percent? That’s a lot. But let’s look more closely:  Romney got just 6 percent of the African American vote; Trump got 8 percent of that vote, that’s an increase of 33 percent all right. But looked at another way Romney lost 94 percent of African American voters while Trump lost just 92 percent of it. That’s a measly 2 percent smaller loss; whopee for Trump! The bottom line here is that if you are going to lose 90 to 95 percent of the vote of a growing population your party is in trouble.

The Latino vote is similar; Trump got 29 percent of that vote to Romney’s 27 percent. Again, if you are losing 70 to 75 percent of a rapidly expanding cohort you shouldn’t be congratulating yourself. It is true that Trump’s performance here is surprising given his grossly insulting comments about Mexican immigrants, but it isn’t something to crow over…and Barone is doing a lot of crowing.